The raise of corporate foresight?

Recently our paper “Corporate Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm” has made it into the  Most Read list of the Technological Forecasting and Social Change journal. This listing came as a surprise to me as the journal and the overall scientific discussion has long been dominated by the macro economic perspective. Most academic articles focused on predicting technology and industry evolution or on advancing foresight methods.

Given that we have even put the term ‘corporate foresight‘ in the title, I am wondering if the documented interest is also a sign for a growing academic interest in foresight from a firm perspective. This would be certainly great news for the corporate world as clearly the interest from managers has been growing firmly in the last decade. We could also witness this growing interest in our LinkedIn group, which has grown from 121 members a year ago to 320 today.

Full reference of the article: Rohrbeck, R.,  Gemünden, H. G. 2011. Corporate Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(2), 231-243. (open access version) (read a summary in our blog post)

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ISPIM Conference 2012, 17-20 June 2012, Barcelona, Spain

The 2012 edition of the ISPIM conference will put a special emphasis on the micro-processes of innovation creation. The theme “Action for Innovation” points at and interesting paradox: While we have gained much knowledge about how we ‘manage’  innovations and innovators we have lost sight of the micro processes that are involved in innovation ‘creation‘.

For example it can be witnessed that many successful innovations have emerged not only by the creative push of an innovator, but through the continuous challenge from an opponent. The opponent might for example identify technical flaws or expresses his concerns about the customer value.

In successful companies these interactions are frequent and constructive. Steve Jobs of Apple has been known to act himself as the opponent, interacting frequently with his product development teams to push them through iterative cycles of feature extensions and product enhancement.

These and other micro processes can be expected to be crucial for the innovation performance and we are well advised to fine tune our innovation management practices to support, rather than prevent, these micro processes.

Papers and practitioner presentations can be submitted to the following tracks:

  • Action for Innovation (Conference Focus Theme)
  • Collaboration for Innovation (incl. Open Innovation)
  • Creativity & Idea Generation
  • Entrepreneurship, Business Models & Financing Innovation
  • Innovation Training, Education & Learning
  • Methods, Tools & Measurement for innovation
  • Networks & Clusters of Innovation
  • Sustainability in Innovation

Submission deadlines are:

  • Outlines: 31 December 2011
  • Full papers: 4 May 2012

For more details visit ISPIM’s Call for Papers. For information on other interesting conferences visit our Calls for Papers page.

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Disruption: What’s in a name?

One prominent theme in the field of organizational future orientation is the concept of disruptions. Generally understood as discontinuities in the external environment that shake up the marketplace and put incumbents at unease, the term particularly rose to prominence in the wake of Harvard Business School Professor Clayton Christensen’s research on disruptive technologies. According to the theory, disruptive technologies (and later also disruptive business models and disruptive product innovations in general) share the following characteristics:

  • They initially underperform on the primary performance dimensions valued by mainstream customers
  • They introduce or emphasize a second performance dimension that is relevant to niche customers

The twist here is that over time these innovations may gradually improve until they reach a satisfactory level on the (old) primary performance dimension. This is the moment that marks the disruption: the trajectory of performance demanded by the mainstream intersects with the performance provided by the (disruptive) innovation. Mainstream customers start to switch, as the new technology/product/business model scores adequately on the old but is at the same time superior on the new performance attribute.

The theory has received considerable attention from academics and practitioners alike. As a consequence, the prefix ‘disruptive’ has also turned into a buzzword that people are all too eager to attach to all kinds of innovations. Regardless of whether or not the term is always used in the right context, at closer inspection the wording introduced by Christensen fails to capture the essence of his theory.  True, it is a catchy term and more or less reflects an incumbent firm’s experience once their established competences and customer relationships are literally “breaking apart” in the advent of disruptive innovations introduced by competitors. However, it does only tell us very little about how the disruption actually emerges. Ironically, this is the piece of information which should be most relevant for practitioners.

A possible avenue to fill this gap is offered by Schmidt & Druehl (2008). The authors re-conceptualize disruption as encroachment, thus highlighting the process in which a disruptive innovation diffuses into the world. Along with a typology of encroachment from the low-end, high-end, or a totally detached market they show that potentially disruptive innovations can be recognized using metrics from different customer segments and their willingness to pay for certain performance attributes.
Beyond this analytical contribution, their terminology captures more precisely what is really going on in the case of disruptive developments. As mental models by decision makers (and every other individual) rely heavily on their verbal representation, this should not be taken lightly. In an interview given earlier this year, Christensen himself states that he would not use the term disruption to label his theory again as the term implies false connotations (Christensen & Euchner, 2011, p.16). Interestingly, in the same interview he also shares an anecdote from Intel, where his actual model was not able to provide answers to managerial problems. What really made a difference was the introduction of a common language to frame the problem and reach consensus on a counterintuitive course of action.

Full references:
Schmidt, G. M., & Druehl, C. T. (2008). When Is a Disruptive Innovation Disruptive? Journal of Product Innovation Management, 25(4), 347–369. (link)
Christensen, C., & Euchner, J. (2011). Managing Disruption: An Interview with Clayton Christensen. Research-Technology Management, 54(1), 11–17. (link)

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Journal rankings – a guide to the quality of scientific publication outlets

As scholars we are often confronted by the need to judge the quality of journals. There have been many attempts to establish rankings. Today we would like to share our top six links for judging the quality of scientific journals:

  1. Anne-Wil Harzing publishes not only an overview of various journal rankings, but has also created a nice tool, which allows to analyze the citation data of Google Scholar for individual scholars and journals*.
  2. The ranking of the German Business Newspaper “Handelsblatt” is one of the most comprehensive rankings around.
  3. For a more selective list the Financial Times ranking is also very useful.
  4. Another comprehensive list comes from our French colleagues.
  5. Scholars interested in a perspective from the southern hemisphere, might also find the Australian journal ranking useful.
  6. Scholars working in Germany, Austria or Switzerland should also check the ranking by the professional association of university teachers in business education (VHB).

* Anne-Wil has also written a nice book: The Publish or Perish Book: Your Guide to Effective and Responsible Citation Analysis

We will also keep that list updated as a permanent page.

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Evidence for the impact of corporate-foresight activities

With a recent article we want to add to the discussion on the impact of corporate-foresight activities.

Based on a literature review we identify three groups of potential value creations:

  • Trigger organizational responses, including identifying relevant external change, start new innovation initiatives and challenge innovation development to ensure state-of-the-art
  • Start and facilitate strategic discussions to enable strategic change, including challenge and change existing mental models, moderate strategic discussions, promote participation and support breaking away from path dependency
  • Identify and support acquisition of needed strategic resources, including identify resources, decide on development of acquisition

Within our case studies we find evidence for activities that have led to these impacts. We can thus link specific corporate-foresight to our value creation groups. We find that:

  • Consumer scouting activities have triggered innovation initiatives
  • Future business workshops that included scenario analysis and roadmapping have led to the development of a new business
  • Technology scouting activities have led to the acquisition of new key technologies and to the creation of start-up companies

By cross-case analysis we identified also four success criteria:

  • Design the foresight activity on the basis of committed individuals, putting particular emphasis on using mutually valuable exchange relationships such as in the scouting network where all four actors profit from the activity
  • Ensure a high level of communication and participation such as in the case of the consumer-scouting activity
  • Use methods that allow for modeling and interpreting of the system of influencing factors (such as the scenario technique), rather than rely on methods that build on linear cause-effect relationships
  • Experiment with methods and processes until you have found a practice that works for your company and takes into account the special requirements in your context

Full reference of the article: Rohrbeck, R. 2011 Exploring the Value Creation from Corporate-Foresight Activities, Futures, forthcoming.

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